Illinois State Representative Travis Weaver said on Feb. 17 that Moody’s economic forecast projects a negative trajectory for the state, including continued population declines and no new job creation, while calling for tax reductions to attract growth.
The topic is significant as Illinois faces ongoing challenges with population loss and stagnant employment, which could impact the state’s economy and workforce in the coming years.
“The ‘State of Illinois Economic Forecast Report’ projects a negative trajectory for Illinois’ economy. Moody’s projects continued population declines in Illinois in continuation of trends in place since the 2020 U.S. Census. New jobs are not being created in Illinois and young adults seeking careers or professional advancement are increasingly forced to look elsewhere. We can make Illinois a destination for growth by reducing burdensome taxes on families and job creators,” Weaver said, according to his Facebook post reacting to the Moody’s State of Illinois Economic Forecast Report.
Moody’s Analytics forecasts that Illinois employment will be essentially unchanged or slightly lower in 2026, with the state’s population resuming its decline after a brief pause, according to the <a href="https://cgfa.ilga.gov/Upload/2026StofILEconomicForecast%20Moody”>February 2026 State of Illinois Forecast Report prepared for the Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability. The analysis projects that Illinois will lag behind Midwest and national averages in job and income growth due to persistent out-migration and fiscal challenges. The state’s population loss over the next several years is expected to rank among the worst in the country.
Illinois lost 1,700 jobs overall in 2025 while the nation added 584,000, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data compiled by the <a href="https://www.illinoispolicy.org/illinois-loses-1700-jobs-in-2025-while-nation-adds-584000/”>Illinois Policy Institute. The state ranked 35th in job creation with declines noted in manufacturing trade and other sectors. Young adults and professionals continue to leave for states with stronger opportunities and lower costs, contributing to a shrinking tax base and workforce.
Moody’s Analytics’ February 2026 forecast also projects that Illinois’s population—which had briefly increased—will resume its decline and remain among the weakest nationally over several years due to persistent out-migration and weak natural growth. The shrinking working-age population is expected to limit employment and income gains, according to Crain’s Chicago Business.
Weaver represents the 93rd District as a Republican member of the Illinois House of Representatives. He serves as a business professor at Bradley University after earning degrees from the University of Alabama and Northwestern University, previously holding finance roles at Caterpillar before entering public office according to his official biography. Weaver was elected in 2023, replacing previous representative Norine Hammond.
